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Thread: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

  1. #1
    Blue Wolf's Avatar
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    Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Yesterday in the mail, I received a 20-page advertisement from Tobin Smith, who claims to be the founder and CEO of NBT Equity Group, Inc. He's also the editor of Changewave Investing and is the founder and chief investment strategist for Changewave Research.

    Tobin is currently promoting a stock called Petrosonic Energy (PSON), and this advertisement is being mailed out to thousands of investors right now.

    On the front page of this advertisement, the headline screamed, "Oil Tech Game Changer! This Breakthrough Technology Could Make the Next Four Years the Most Profitable of Your Lifetime!"

    And on page 5, Tobin made this bold prediction: "Buy shares of PSON around $1 right now and you could . . . Turn $10,000 into $50,000 in the next 6-12 months!"

    Then on page 12, he says, "And if China were to buy sole rights to the technology for a mere $2 billion, each of those shares of PSON that you can buy now for around $1 could be worth $30.95. That's a gain of 2,995% and it could be enough to . . . Turn $10,000 into $299,500!"

    Finally, on page 18, Tobin screams, "PSON in ready NOW . . . and working TODAY. That's why I'm so excited about PSON . . . it's ready to make its big move NOW . . . I urge you to load up on PSON NOW! And I also hope you'll want to keep up with my next great finds as a Charter Subscriber to my Next Big Thing Investor newsletter!"

    Then he asked me to send him a check/money order for $79.00 to receive 12 issues of his newsletter.

    However, on page 17, I noticed this disclaimer in small print: "Changewave Inc. (dba NBT Communications) is paid fifty thousand dollars as an editorial fee from Beaumont Media LLC." (It sure is weird how that particular sentence was buried there in tiny print, as if he didn't want me to see it.) And remember, Tobin is the founder of Changewave.

    It appears that Tobin was paid thousands of dollars to promote PSON. So, why would anybody consider this to be legitimate investment advice? An honest stock analyst would not be paid to promote a risky penny stock. Some people will say absolutely anything as long as they get paid to do so . . . and if you lose money, they don't care.

    In addition, if Tobin really thinks that this stock will go up by 2,995%, then why is he asking me to mail him a check for $79.00? Why doesn't he just forget about me and buy up the shares and make himself extremely rich?

    Just think about all of the paper that was wasted to mail out this junk. I wonder how many beautiful trees were chopped down for this. And I wonder how many people are actually going to buy this stock that he's promoting.

    So, if anybody else gets this advertisement in the mail, throw it in the garbage immediately.

    And whatever you do, DON'T buy PSON or any other penny stock that Tobin Smith promotes in the future.

  2. #2
    Blue Wolf's Avatar
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    I just went to yahoo and looked up some information about PSON.

    Notice that the company has a whopping 2 employees.

    Impressive!

    _____________________________________



    Petrosonic Energy, Inc. (PSON)
    -OTC Markets

    1.06 Up 0.04(3.92%) 3:56PM EDT
    Add to Portfolio
    Profile Get Profile for:
    Petrosonic Energy, Inc.
    205
    Suite 204
    Calgary, AB T2G 0R3
    Canada - Map
    Phone: 403-708-7869
    Website: Petrosonic Energy Inc. - Home Page - Wed May 8, 2013

    Details
    Index Membership: N/A
    Sector: N/A
    Industry: N/A
    Full Time Employees: 2

    Business Summary

    Petrosonic Energy, Inc. focuses on the de-asphalting and separation of asphalt from heavy crude oil, oil sands, and waste oils. The company was formerly known as Bearing Mineral Exploration, Inc. and changed its name to Petrosonic Energy, Inc. in May 2012. Petrosonic Energy, Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

  3. #3
    ribshaw's Avatar
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Tobin Smith joined the dark side of the investment business a while ago. I can recall several (2-3) promo mailings I have received from him in the past year or so. Now I wish I had hung on to them so we could see how he did, but I can guess. The last I heard him speak was around the time of the global meltdown at the Money Show or Traders Expo in Vegas, don't remember which except the Vegas part. He had a stable of Hucksters pitching various subscription services. Two I attended were a guy who sold stocks short (bet they go down) and was negative PFE at $15. (Bad Call) The other was two guys with an options service and they were pitching an option trade on UNG, also did not end well. I think with a lot of these guys they cherry pick the winners and forget all about the losers. No need to pay money for that, I can lose money all by myself.

    At any rate there is a service called Vector Vest where you can check a stock for free with an email address. They will fill your email with offers so choose wisely what email you give them, and I am not endorsing them.

    VV put the Value of PSON at $.11 and consider it below average safety. Well below where Tobin says it will go.
    "It's virtually impossible to violate rules ... but it's impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time." Bernie Madoff
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  4. #4
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    There is a service called "Stock Gumshoe" that tracks a lot of these newsletters and their performance and the reviews of anything Changewave are pretty poor:
    Changewave.JPG
    It seems like in this "industry" common sense is not all that common!

  5. #5
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    I love Stock Gumshoe, before I moved I used to get a ton of promo fliers and he does a great job of figuring out what the tease is and seems to know most of the promoters. 1 Star ratings in investing or Sushi is never good.

    Stock Gumshoe | Secret Teaser Stocks Revealed. Investment Newsletters Reviewed.
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  6. #6
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Not to tie up a whole thread, I got a piece of snail Mail from Scott S Fraser of the Natural Contrarian touting COYR (Coyote Resources) it closed today at $.80 down 11%. He claims it is heading to $26 and Vector Vest says it is worth $.11, as in 11 cents. I have gotten a lot of junk from this guy over the years and I suspect if he was a good stock picker he would not be mailing bulk rate to tell me about it.

    PSON from above closed the day at $.91, down 7% on the day, it hit $1.15 right after the letter was mailed. Anyone want to take book on who unloaded their shares at $1.15 and to who?
    "It's virtually impossible to violate rules ... but it's impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time." Bernie Madoff
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Quote Originally Posted by ribshaw View Post
    Not to tie up a whole thread, I got a piece of snail Mail from Scott S Fraser of the Natural Contrarian touting COYR (Coyote Resources) it closed today at $.80 down 11%. He claims it is heading to $26 and Vector Vest says it is worth $.11, as in 11 cents. I have gotten a lot of junk from this guy over the years and I suspect if he was a good stock picker he would not be mailing bulk rate to tell me about it.

    PSON from above closed the day at $.91, down 7% on the day, it hit $1.15 right after the letter was mailed. Anyone want to take book on who unloaded their shares at $1.15 and to who?
    LOL, pump and dump at its finest...!
    It seems like in this "industry" common sense is not all that common!

  8. #8
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Thank you Scott S. Frazer few if any of us have this sort of stock picking talent, can't wait for next month's pick.

    coyr.JPG
    "It's virtually impossible to violate rules ... but it's impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time." Bernie Madoff
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  9. #9
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Quote Originally Posted by ribshaw View Post

    VV put the Value of PSON at $.11 and consider it below average safety. Well below where Tobin says it will go.
    Lol . . . that's WAY below where Tobin says it will go. Where the stock goes from here is probably of little concern to him, however. He already got his money.

    His other predictions haven't been very accurate, either. In 2007, he said that the Dow (the stock market) would go up to 20,000 by 2011. But less than 2 years later, it had lost most of its value, dropping to a low of about 6,500 in early 2009.

    Seems silly that he called people "crackpots" if they thought the stock market was going to fall down to 10,000 (see his comments below).

    Apparently, the "crackpots" were right.

    ________________________________________________

    May 16, 2007

    That's Right, Dow 20,000

    There are a lot of pessimists shouting "Dow 5,000" or "Dow 10,000," but I think they've got it all wrong. The market has much further to go -- I'm talking Dow 20,000 by 2011.

    Why do I think that? For starters, the market is about 25% undervalued. Stocks must be valued against something, such as bonds -- so for this example, let's value stocks against AAA corporate bonds, which the safest bonds out there.

    You receive about a 5.5% yield from AAA bonds, and if you take the earnings yield -- i.e., the earnings of Dow stocks divided by the price of the stocks -- we're at about a 6.5% yield.

    That's just plain silly! Why would stocks have a higher earnings yield than safer bond investments? It's upside down.

    Usually, there's about a 100-basis-point difference between the two (about 1%). At $853 of earnings per share on the Dow this year, we should have the Dow at about 17,000 relative to AAA bonds, because that would be its fair value.

    Looking at historic rates, for the past 20 to 40 years we've had about 4% to 4.5% earnings per share growth. So we have to add that growth to the equation, and also take into consideration the trillion dollars worth of stocks being taken out of the market through stock buybacks. Now the math gets interesting.

    During the next two or three years, if we add just good old American 5%-or-so growth to the Dow 17,000 as the fair value, it means that every two years, we're up about another 10% in earnings per share. If we take the shares out of the market, we're up another 1,700 points.

    If we do that for the next three to four years, we'll be at Dow 20,000. The math is very simple.

    Different Math for Different Times

    Let's look at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.

    P/E ratios during the last 40 years or so were at 14.4%. (Thank you, Jeremy Siegel, for all of your research.) But we clearly live in a completely different economic environment than we did 25 or 30 years ago.

    First, we have 2 billion additional consumers in the world. Looking at the global picture, you realize that these 2 billion people make businesses more valuable.

    Here's an analogy: If I were interested in buying a shoe store in Bethesda, Md., I'd pay maybe one-times sales because I'm addressing a small market. If I were buying a store that served the entire world, I would pay a higher multiple because I'd have a much bigger market opportunity.

    It's just common sense.

    In essence, that's what we're doing here. We have a global business opportunity that includes 2 billion more people who add hundreds and hundreds of trillions of dollars to the global economy. So, in terms of P/E ratios, when you pay for $1 of earnings, the ratio should be higher.

    Beyond that, the P/E ratio has always been about risk and reward. From a transactional standpoint, when you look at the cost of assembling a portfolio, it's much cheaper today. With electronic trading, lower commission fees, etc., we cut out 90% of the costs.

    In addition, looking at the relative safety and stability of the world -- central banks, for example -- we should have higher price-to-earnings multiples simply because risk is so much lower.

    So, in the new world in which we live, the 2 billion additional consumers, lower transaction costs, and a much more stable and service-oriented business world (25 or 30 years ago, manufacturing dominated our economy), we should be selling in the 18 to 20 P/E range.

    It makes perfectly good sense.

    Again, going back to the earnings yield, today we should be somewhere near a 5% overall earnings yield on the S&P 500. Take the 20 P/E, multiply it by five and -- boom! -- we have a stock market that's undervalued by another 25%.

    It doesn't matter how you do the math, we are undervalued relative to other investment alternatives. Yet earnings growth -- because of better-run companies, a larger world and the fact that we can systematize earnings much better than in the past -- means stocks should be higher.

    So when you hear the Dow 5,000 grumblers and the Dow 10,000 crackpots, don't lose focus.

    We're on our way to Dow 20,000, baby! I'm talking about stocks with a 50% greater market in the next four to five years. I'm also talking about the really secular growth stocks that may double or triple those returns. Don't take your eye off the ball.

    Dow 20,000 -- that could be your new mantra. Or even better, your mantra should be: "How can I beat that?"

    I don't want 50% growth. I want 100% and 200% returns -- the real life-changing accumulation during this period when stocks will be re-priced relative to their value. And, of course, that is the secret to ChangeWave Investing.

    Look up, not down. It's a big world, and we're going to make a lot of money.

    Toby

  10. #10
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    It must be getting close to the top of the bull market, just got some snail mail today from The Penny $tock Pillager. Touting XUII and letting me know a 30 fold return may occur when Google, Netfilx and HULU get in a bidding war over this gem. It looks to me like it began trading this month and I could not get a value on it since it is so new. Not holding up hopes for anything more than a pump and dump.

    XUII.JPG
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  11. #11
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Got another one the other day from theprofitdesk.com YPPN. Got quotes on the ones touted so far.

    pumpanddump.JPG
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  12. #12
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    These two have been sitting in the junk mail pile for a while, but got Eric Danny's Stock Prospector promoting NORX and Ken William's Hard Asset Report promoting POLR. Quotes are from Friday July 12, with updates from all the "guru" picks. Not a good track record for the lot.

    Pumpndump.JPG
    "It's virtually impossible to violate rules ... but it's impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time." Bernie Madoff
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  13. #13
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    It appears that Tobin Smith has been fired for his shameful behavior.

    I have to admit that I have no sympathy for him at all.

    ____________________________________________

    Meet Tobin Smith: The Dubious Stock Pitchman Fired From Fox News | Blog | Media Matters for America

    Fox News has fired paid contributor and market analyst Tobin Smith for receiving compensation to promote the stock of Petrosonic Energy, a violation of network policy. According to a Media Matters review, Smith's company, NBT Equities Research, also received compensation for promoting numerous other companies through his website and conservative newsletters, and used his Fox News credentials to hawk volatile stocks to conservatives.

    MarketWatch wrote that Smith's Petrosonic advertising pitches ignored several problems with the company's finances, including its lack of revenues, "Petrosonic's rising losses, negative cash-flow and the 'going-concern letter' from auditors who think there is 'substantial doubt' in Petrosonic's ability to survive."

  14. #14
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Junk mail day, this may have sit in the pile for a month or so, but not May when this dog ran up to 6 and crashed just as quickly. Got ARTH from Ian Cooper's Speed Retirement System, LOL hope his pumping skillz are better than Toby Smith other pikers.

    pumpand dump1.JPG
    pumpand dump.JPG
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  15. #15
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    How happy I was to get back from the Chinese Buffet on a day the S&P 500 hit a record high to find a new pump and dump in my mailbox. Er I mean serious piece of investment research.

    This rabbit cage liner came from IPO Desktop Premium. Francis Gaskins President and Editor.

    Ticker Symbol WTER closed today at .$60. Have no idea about this company, too tired from dumplings to check, but if you had invested with any of the other fine stock picks previously mentioned it looks like a loss of about 50% is average. Can lose that much money on my own, no need to bring it the pros.

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  16. #16
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Look what I got in the mail:


    ZENO 001.jpg

    Apparently, Tobin Smith is at it again. This time he wants me to buy a stock called Zenosense.

    Is he serious? LOL

    Let's see how his last stock pick turned out. That one was called Petrosonic Energy (PSON). He said that it could go up to $30.95. Here's where it ended trading today:

    PSON.JPG

    PSON is now worth 9 cents a share. The stock has lost most of its value since he recommended it. Funny how he never mentioned that in his latest advertisement. He also didn't mention the fact that he was fired from Fox News last year for promoting it.

  17. #17
    JustTooMuchTime is offline Senior Scambuster
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    His advice is so valuable you can pick up a copy of his ChangeWave Investing book for a penny...

    ChangeWave Investing: Picking the Next Monster Stocks of the New Economy: Tobin Smith: 9781885167354: Amazon.com: Books

  18. #18
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    While cleaning out my inbox I found an email dated 3-11-2014 from Tobin Smith pushing GFOX - Grey Fox Petroleum Corp.

    "Two industry heavyweights with a combined worth of $74 billion could be set to fight it out for ownership of..."
    "Gray Fox Petroleum GFOX Has Beaten Big-Oil to the Punch!
    Unknown, Gray Fox Petroleum Corp GFOX has somehow managed to lock up a 100% working interest in a prime, 32,723 acre oil prospect known as the West Ranch Prospect. In fact, under the terms of their deal, they practically stole it.
    When big-oil comes knocking, GFOX stands to make a huge profit. And so could you, if you own GFOX now before the bidding war begins!"

    "If I'm right, and my track record suggests I am, that would mean that if you act now while you can still get GFOX for $1.00 a share, you could..."

    Out of curiosity I checked the stock price and see that it has pretty steadily dropped from around $1 to $0.06 as of 12-31-2014

  19. #19
    littleroundman is offline Administrator
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    Re: Tobin Smith - Honest stock analyst or sleazy stock promoter?

    Pump and dump at its' finest
    The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing

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